http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Storm Prediction Center
Tue, 14 Aug 2018 23:33:01 +0000
MD 1289 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1289
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
Areas affected...Front Range of Colorado
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 142331Z - 150130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms capable of severe hail will
be possible through about 02-03Z. A WW is not likely.
DISCUSSION...A few storms have formed along the Front Range. 9 km
radar CAPPI shows several 50+ DBZ cores and a couple 1+ in. hail
reports have occurred over the last hour or two. While instability
is modest at 500-1000 J/kg, mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km and
effective deep layer shear of 30-40 kts will continue to support a
hail threat, particularly in the northern portion of the discussion
area, through early evening. Activity should wane by 02-03Z with
onset of boundary layer stabilization. Given the limited extent of
the threat, a WW is not likely.
..Wendt/Grams.. 08/14/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 40940395 40540365 39940368 39240382 38340398 37760421
37340467 37320488 37940550 38920579 39600578 40320564
40660518 40910442 40940395
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Tue, 14 Aug 2018 23:32:03 +0000
MD 1288 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1288
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
Areas affected...Portions of central Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 142315Z - 150045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Potential exists for isolated large hail, strong wind
gusts, and a brief tornado across central Oklahoma through
approximately 03Z. Watch issuance appears unlikely at present,
though.
DISCUSSION...An expanding cluster of storms, aided by
moist/confluent southerly boundary-layer flow, is maintaining some
severe threat across central Oklahoma currently. KTLX and TOKC data
indicate occasional supercellular structures embedded within this
cluster. Although mid-level lapse rates are modest, rich low-level
theta-e is yielding sufficient buoyancy in the hail-growth zone for
a brief/isolated large hail threat. Additionally, backed surface
winds amidst a very moist boundary-layer environment may support
occasional low-level mesocyclones, which would enhance the threat
for a few stronger gusts and perhaps a brief tornado this evening.
Still, modest mid/upper flow and storm development largely parallel
to deep-layer shear vectors should limit the threat enough to
preclude watch issuance.
..Picca/Grams.. 08/14/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 36109927 36339694 35999634 35019630 34739728 34339842
34699926 35759943 36109927
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Tue, 14 Aug 2018 23:16:02 +0000
Page created: Tue, Aug 14, 2018 - 11:46 PM GMT